USD Higher Ahead of FOMC Minutes
USD has traded higher over the European morning on Tuesday with the index breaking back above the 97.10 level. The greenback has been well supported following the recent meeting between Trump and Xi which saw the pair agreeing to re-commit to trade talks. With little on the data sheet today, focus remains on the FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow as traders try and gauge the likelihood of a July rate cut.
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EUR Heads Lower
EURUSD has been lower again today in the wake of the ongoing USD recovery. EURUSD is now trading firmly below the 1.1217 level support, which was broken overnight following several attempts over sessions. Recent eurozone data weakness is keeping the pressure on the ECB with expectations of forthcoming easing continuing to build.
Brexit Woes Weigh on GBP
GBPUSD has been sharply lower today. This is despite news that the former attorney general Dominic Grieve is planning to block Boris Johnson’s plans for a no deal Brexit. Grieve plans to do this through a special amendment to the Northern Ireland Bill which will stop Johnson from proroguing parliament. GBPUSD trades 1.2465 last.
Risk assets have been lower today also with the SPX500 printing its third consecutive losing day so far. Price is now trading 2959.93, sitting back under the recent 2963.89 level. Despite optimism around US-China trade negotiations as well as the prospect of the Fed easing, a stronger USD seems to be running the show for the time being. SPX500 broke out to fresh all-time highs last week on the back of the Trump/Xi meeting, though gains have lost momentum for now.
JPY Higher, Gold lower
Safe havens have had a mixed day today so far. Gold has traded lower against the US Dollar. Meanwhile, JPY has seen stronger safe-haven inflows, linked to weakness in equities prices, keeping it supported. USDJPY trades 108.90 last, having recently broken back above the 108.78 level, though USD has conceded earlier gains on the day. XAUUSD trades 1388.50 last, with price having moved back under the 1391.61 support. However, it is still above the recent 1382.06 lows for now.
Crude Testing Resistance
Oil prices have had a very subdued morning so far with price roughly unchanged on the session following moves higher overnight. Crude is still grappling with the 57.85 level for now. Later today we have the API inventories report. This will give the market the first look at US industry levels over the prior week, ahead of tomorrow’s main EIA report, which could give oil some upside if a further drawdown is reported.
Commodity Currencies Lower Again
USDCAD is trading a little lower this morning with price retreating from the latest test of the 1.3136 level. Subdued oil prices and a stronger US dollar have helped keep USDCAD above the 1.3070 level. USDCAD has been under pressure over recent weeks following the rally in oil prices. However, the recent dip lower in oil prices has stalled the decline for now. The BOC meets tomorrow which could add further support for CAD if the bank maintains a resilient tone.
AUDUSD is trading back below the .6940 this morning, disappointingly for bulls. The recovery in USD, along with the pullback in gold prices and equities, has hit AUD hard. Focus remains on a further push lower for now.
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