Technical Analysis #C-COPPER : 2019-04-16

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IFCMarkets Technical Analysis
IFCMarkets Technical Analysis

Last week positive macroeconomic data was published in China. Will the Copper quotations grow?

China consumes about half of all copper produced in the world. According to the Chinese General Administration of Customs, in March of this year, 1.77 million tons of copper ore were imported into the country, which is 10.6% more than the same month in 2018. Generally the data on Chinese foreign trade for March 2019 was very positive. The trade surplus was $ 32.6 billion, which is much better than the preliminary forecast of $ 5.7 billion. Another positive factor was the increase in lending in RMB in March to 1.69 trillion yuan, with a forecast of 1.2 trillion. yuan This Wednesday, on April 17, the data on China’s industrial production and retail sales for March will be published early in the morning, also will be published important GDP data for the first quarter of this year. If the data turns out to be positive, it may increase the demand for copper. According to forecasts, Chinese GDP growth will slow to a 27-year low and will be 6.3%. For the entire 2018 the Chinese economy grew by 6.6%. According to the government’s forecast, in 2019 its growth will slow down a bit and will be 6.2%.

Copper

On the daily timeframe, Copper: D1 broke up the resistance line of the medium-term neutral trend and forms a new uptrend in the form of a triangle. Various technical analysis indicators show an uptrend. Further growth of quotations is possible in case of publication of positive macroeconomic statistics in China.

  • The Parabolic Indicator demonstrates and uptrend signal.
  • The Bollinger Bands narrowed,which indicates the volatility decrease. The bottom line of Bollinger has a slope up.
  • The RSI Indicator is above 50. No divergences observed.
  • The MACD Indicator shows an uptrend signal.

The bullish momentum may develop in case if Copper will exceed the last two upper fractals, a maximum since June 2018 and the upper Bollinger line: 2.99. This level may serve as an entry point. The initial stop loss may be placed below the last 4 lower fractals, the Parabolic signal and the bottom Bollinger line: 2.83. After opening the pending order, we shall move the stop following the Bollinger Bands and Parabolic to the next fractal minimum.Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (2,83), without reaching the order (2,99), we recommend to close the position: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Position Buy
Buy stop Above 2,99
Stop loss Below 2,83

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