USDCAD, M30 and H1
USDCAD has upwardly popped on the CPI miss out of Canada, which saw the y/y rate undershoot expectations at 2.2% y/y. The median forecast had been for a 2.3% y/y outcome. The markets looks to have overlooked the 0.6% gain in March retail sales, although double the median forecast. USDCAD has climbed above 1.2879, up over 82 pips from pre-data levels.
Canada CPI slowed to a 2.2% y/y pace in April from the 2.3% y/y pace in March. CPI rose 0.3% m/m in April after the 0.3% gain in March. The slowing in the annual growth rate is contrary to expectations (median +2.3% y/y with a 0.4% m/m gain). The core measures held near the BoC’s 2.0% target
Canada retail sales rose 0.6% in March after a revised 0.5% increase in February sales values (was +0.4%). The ex-autos sales aggregate fell 0.2% in March following the flat (0.0%) reading in February. A 3.0% gain in motor vehicle and parts dealers followed a 2.0% gain in February, driving total sales during March. Yet a 1.2% drop in food and beverage store sales, along with a 1.9% pull-back in gasoline station values (despite, or perhaps because of higher gasoline prices) pulled the ex-autos sales aggregate underwater in March.The increase in total sales overshot expectations, but the ex-autos sales aggregate was contrary to expectations for a gain. Total sales volumes grew 0.8% m/m in March, supportive of further improvement in March GDP (we’ve penciled in a +0.2% gain) after the 0.4% rebound in February and 0.1% drop in January.
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