Dollar Down For Five Straight Days Ahead of FOMC


USD Down Again

Over the European morning on Wednesday, the US dollar posted its fifth consecutive daily decline, taking the index back down to test the 97.13 level support. The market is now waiting for the FOMC meeting due later today. And many traders are expecting a more balanced tone to the statement. Recent positive data as well as constructive trade talk developments, present upside USD risks. Later today we have a raft of key US data ahead of the FOMC with ISM Manufacturing and employment both due.

EUR Up On Dollar Weakness

EURUSD continues its rally off the 1.1119 base as the USD decline allows for higher levels. Better than expected inflation data earlier in the week has been welcomed by bulls. This comes despite ongoing concerns for the health of the eurozone economy.  A quiet data sheet today keeps the focus on USD flows as the sell-off in USD continues to be the main driver.

Pound Rally Pushes On

GBPUSD has been on an impressive rally this week also, with price breaking out above the bearish trend line and 1.30 resistance level. While domestic data has continued to print weekly, GBP has been taking advantage of the weaker US dollar. Meanwhile, traders wait for the BOE meeting due tomorrow though the bank is unlikely to deliver a message too dissimilar from last time.

Risk Appetite Remains Firm

Risk appetite has been growing firmly again this week. The SPX500 is breaking out above the 2939.87 level highs to trade 2955.93 last. Ongoing optimism around the US/China trade negotiations and the prospect of a forthcoming trade deal have kept risk sentiment buoyant. However, any perceived hawkish commentary from the Fed later could weigh on risk assets.

UK100 Trading Lower

The UK 100 has not seen such upside movement however, as price reels from a stronger GBP. The market has been boosted by news of the Brexit delay recently, with traders anticipating that the BOE will have to keep rate hikes on old likely until 2020. However, the upcoming BOE meeting will be closely watched for any opposing suggestions.

Crude Traders Waiting on EIA Report

Oil prices have had a mixed week so far with an initial rally capped by the latest API report indicating a further, unexpected build in crude inventories. Crude is now trading 63.58, ahead of the weekly EIA report due later today which could fuel a further move lower if the build is confirmed.

Commodity Currencies Better Against USD

Following a sharp sell-off yesterday due to the initial rally in oil as well as continued USD weakness, USDCAD has stabilized somewhat today. The pain has found support at a retest of the 1.3377 level which has been a key pivot recently. Looking ahead today, the key domestic release is the RBC Manufacturing PMI.

AUDUSD remains supported, though still not far above the .7021 level which price recently pierced beneath. Better risk appetite, linked to the prospect of a US/China trade deal, as well as a weaker US dollar, continue to support the Aussie. However, weaker oil prices and downbeat domestic fundamentals have kept upside capped.


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