ECB expected to leave rates unchanged but change monetary policy

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FxPro Daily Economic Events
FxPro Daily Economic Events
At 08:30 GMT, UK Retail Sales (May) is expected to be 0.5% (MoM) and 2.4% (YoY) from 1.6% (MoM) and 1.4% (YoY) previously. Retail Sales ex-Fuel (May) is expected to be 0.3% (MoM) and 2.5% (YoY) from 1.3% (MoM) and 1.5% (YoY) previously. Yearly figures are expected to show a decrease but monthly numbers are expected to exceed expectations and show a jump in sales. This is a volatile data set but it does give a view on consumer spending. GBP crosses can experience an increase in volatility following this data release. At 11:45 GMT, Eurozone ECB Deposit Rate Decision will be announced today with an expectation of -0.4% compared with a previous -0.4%. The ECB Interest Rate Decision will be released at this time also with an expectation for rates to be left unchanged at 0%. This data could see volatility increase in EUR markets on the approach to the ECB Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement at 12:30. Comments from ECB President Mario Draghi will be assessed for hints on future monetary policy with hawkish comments adding strength to the Euro. Traders will be waiting for any change in guidance concerning asset purchases or interest rate normalisation. At 12:30 GMT, US Retail Sales (MoM) (May) will be released with an expected 0.4% from 0.2% previously which has been revised down from 0.3%. Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (May) is expected at 0.5% from 0.3% prior. Retail Sales Control Group (May) is expected to be 0.4% from 0.5% prior which has been revised up from 0.4%. It is expected that sales will increase marginally this month. US Continuing Jobless Claims (June 1) is expected to be 1.737M against 1.741M previously. Initial Jobless Claims (June 8) is expected to come in at 224K against 222K previously. This data is showing a small decline in the number of continuing claims but new claims have stabilized somewhat. USD crosses can see an increase in volatility from these data releases.

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